With the international financial crisis deepens, many European countries a significant deterioration in economic conditions, one after another move to deal with a difficult situation. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, 23, warned that because of the euro-zone financial markets and the real economy continues to decline, the regional financial system is facing severe challenges.
Affected by the recent expansion of the international financial crisis, was originally associated with the international financial system with limited economies of Eastern Europe were also swept into the crisis. In the financial crisis, the Eastern European economies face outflows of capital, external debt ratios remain high, volatile exchange rates, such as the impact of a surge in the unemployment rate, which give the European economic outlook cast a thick shadow.
Britain likely to face bankruptcy risk
The United States in 2007 after the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis, the British economy was a direct impact. Britain's fifth largest mortgage lenders诺森罗克, because the United States sub-loan crisis of short-term financing difficulties encountered wave runs. Run in order to appease the people, the United Kingdom will be nationalized诺森罗克.
Since then, the British financial institutions of "extensive and serious" credit crunch, the British Government rescue forces can not effectively transfer to the banking sector and real economy. Bank lending, housing prices decline further difficulty only, which makes more and more enterprises of funds forced the closure of strand breaks. The United Kingdom in October last year, the Government launched the first round of the financial rescue plan, but not enough to reverse the situation. In order to promote credit and prevent the economy from a prolonged recession, the United Kingdom in January this year the Government announced a second round of the financial rescue plan. Under the plan, the British Government will be the major problem assets of financial institutions to provide security, and will be ready some large banks nationalized.
Well-known American economist Roubini recently pointed out that if Britain can not correctly deal with large external liabilities and foreign exchange liquidity crisis, Iceland is likely to follow step-by-step, into a country of bankruptcy situation. Roubini said that the British Government's debt ratio of the GDP accounted for 40 percent, a low level, but if the liquidity problems in the implementation of the nationalization of private commercial banks when they assume external liabilities with the global liquidity dried up each other "collision "National is going to happen the risk of bankruptcy.
France and Germany of economic incentives have limited effect
At present, as a "European economic locomotive" Germany is faced with the last century since the 40's most serious economic contraction. German Bundesbank President Axel Weber said in January, with the sustained economic recession in Germany in 2009 the economic slowdown is likely to exceed expectations.
Affected by the global financial crisis, the German economy in the third quarter of last year into a recession. In November last year, the German government announced a total of 32 billion euros economic stimulus plan, but little practical effect look.
To this end, the German government in early January this year launched a second economic stimulus plan, and hopes that increased investment, so that the German economy out of recession as soon as possible problems, the scheme is introduced the post-war Germany, the largest economic stimulus plan.
France also announced the end of last year a total of 26 billion euros economic stimulus plan to address the financial crisis on the economic impact of French. The economic stimulus plan will be the construction of infrastructure, local government funding in support of 10.5 billion euros. The plan also includes helping troubled automotive industry, to encourage people to buy new, more environmentally friendly new models.
However, Germany and France announced incentives does not have the market recognition in Europe and America a few days ago Reuters analyst survey showed that 66 to answer analyst in 44 said that the European economic stimulus plan is not fully or insufficient.
Russia's economy "suspended life" oil
Russian Minister of Economic Affairs on the 24th, announced in January GDP dropped 8.8 percent lower than market expectations, indicating that the extent of Russia's economic recession may be more serious than previously expected. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov prediction earlier this year, Russia's economic growth is likely to zero or less.
In raw material export-oriented economic structure, Russia's long-term economic and closely linked to the international energy market. In particular, international crude oil prices, almost become the Russian economy "命根." With the financial crisis spread to international markets reduced oil demand, oil prices have fallen very sharply, affected by the impact of fear of the Russian economy will fall into the first recession in decades.
In addition, because of the poor economic situation, Russia had much private enterprises unable to repay their debt maturity situation. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Central Asia researcher at the Institute of Russian and East European Li Jianmin introduce this year, Russia has approximately 150 billion U.S. dollars of foreign debt due and no funds to banks and enterprises can only rely on government reimbursement. Because of the Government are still able to bear the risk that these foreign debt in the short term have little effect, but in 2011 a repayment may be the peak. Given the current economic situation, the European banks may have a debt default fears.
Eastern Europe become a "crisis zone"
In the past few months, Eastern European countries and Russia a substantial depreciation of the dollar. 1 this week, including Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, including many Eastern European countries at the same time the central bank issued a statement on the national currency themselves.
S & P report released on the 25th that the global economic recession led to a substantial shrinking export demand in Eastern Europe, together with the Western European banking sector may be tightening lending in Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe now have all the country constitutes a "regional crisis" conditions. However, the report also stressed that the serious problem of national economies to varying degrees, so the prospect of the difference varies.
The report notes that compared to other Eastern European countries, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia, such as strong domestic demand, the more that can withstand the negative impact of shrinking exports. Moreover, these country's fiscal deficit is also lower than that has to expand government spending to revive the economy of space. However, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, the Baltic countries, as well as Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania and other countries, due to external debt and current account deficits are high, a state of rather optimistic.
Moody's Investors Service warned that the deteriorating situation in Eastern Europe triggered a market turbulence in the region and spread to Western Europe and even New York.
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